Markets Warning: 2025 Crash Data Was Just the First Leg... The Second is Now Forming

A single image of a gap in a price chart started it. On January 8, 2025, Future Forecasting Group ran a blind team session on one question: what does the next major drop in traditional markets look like, and what causes it?

Seven viewers, each working without knowledge of the target, described the same architecture. An erratic, conflict-driven break. Confidence bleeding out of government debt and paper assets. Officials scrambling through courts and emergency meetings to contain it.

Twenty-one months later, the first leg is documented history. The April 2025 tariff selloff erased more than $6 trillion in days, and the bond market revolt that followed was openly framed as a verdict on US fiscal credibility.

The rest of the session reads like this week's news. Ten-year Treasury yields at 24-year highs. The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping. France paying more to borrow than Greece, with stress spreading across European bond markets. And one window the viewers flagged as decisive still ahead: 2027 through 2028.

This session was recorded on January 8, 2025.

Verification Notes

This was a team session tasked blind off two pieces of prior data: an image from Dick Allgire's earlier XRP work showing a gap in a price chart, and Daz Smith's "tipping point" session material. Viewers were asked to describe a coming market drop event, its timing, its cause, and whether the damage would be amended or sustained. This review scores the session against the public record through October 8, 2026.

What each viewer put on record

Daz Smith

• An erratic, jumpy, chaotic drop with a distinctly traditional-markets feel
• A conflict-based cause involving three territories in "negotiation of terms"
• Onset around mid-2025, acute phase lasting a month to six weeks
• Gold, silver, and oil as the dominant macro expressions
• A bank bailout component

Dick Allgire

• The core mechanism: loss of confidence in paper assets, bonds, and Treasury instruments
• "The numbers don't add up," an audit demanded and blocked, a day of reckoning
• A bank run, including a digital variant with frozen logins
• Windsor/City of London and Chinese interests securing hard assets
• A possible phrase entering the record: "loss of agility"
• Settlement shifting from dollars toward digital rails

Edward Riordan

• A courtroom and legal framework deciding "how to proceed"
• Frantic officials submitting to law
• The literal phrase "Bitcoin reserve"
• Sequence: freakout, then law, then FOMO boom, with new listings and ETFs

Derek

• Trump imagery; transition from fiat to blockchain with "sweeping changes, global implications"
• Big announcement, heated debate, storm clears, markets respond positively

Sean

• Money falling; "game over"; the bottom drops out overnight
• A terminal quality to the legacy system; hope through self-sufficiency

Nyiam Vendryes

• A house of cards under legacy reconfiguration; crisis meetings and fallback plans
• Instantaneous evaporation: "things can change overnight"
• 2027 through 2028 flagged as the significant window
• An aftermath of three to four months of disruption with strained welfare and shelter systems, followed by a heads-of-state "master plan" announcement

Martee Hibbs (Oracle data)

• Dow tops the first week of December 2024
• Caution in March 2025; a major correction "coming into April, May"
• Dick's chart image read as a reaction, with the underlying event tied to the earlier "death of the dollar" work

Outcome evidence, in sequence

1. December 2024: the Dow topped in the first week of the month, matching Martee's call.
2. March 6, 2025: an executive order created the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Edward said the words eight weeks before they existed in policy.
3. March 2025: the SEC dropped its appeal in the Ripple case, aligning with the session's settlement-transition thread around XRP.
4. April 2, 2025: the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement. The S&P 500 fell roughly 12 percent in days, over $6 trillion erased, the worst two-day stretch since COVID, Nasdaq into a bear market.
5. April 9, 2025: the pause announcement produced a 9.5 percent single-day rally, the best in roughly 17 years. Derek's sequence of announcement, debate, clearing storm, positive response tracked exactly.
6. April 2025: the Treasury selloff was widely described as bond vigilantism and waning confidence in US fiscal policy. Dick's core mechanism made headlines.
7. Late May 2025: the Court of International Trade ruled against the tariff regime. Edward's courtroom frame confirmed.
8. Mid-2025: the GENIUS Act created the first federal stablecoin framework. The digital-settlement thread advanced.
9. Late June 2025: indices at all-time highs. Edward's freakout-to-law-to-boom sequence completed its first cycle.
10. February 28, 2026: US and Israeli strikes on Iran opened the war. Daz's conflict-based causality activated in full.
11. March 2026: Brent peaked at $126 in the largest monthly oil price increase on record. Daz's gold, silver, oil complex became the macro trade of the year.
12. October 2026: gold trades near $4,141, silver near $59, both up enormously from the roughly $2,600 gold environment at recording. Bitcoin trades near $82,000, about 35 percent below its 2025 record, the flush Edward's "bumpy road" language anticipated before the boom phase.

Scorecard

Scoring posture

The session shows a coherent event architecture that has tracked for 21 months: confidence as the epicenter, sovereign debt as the instrument, conflict as the catalyst, courts as the containment tool, hard assets as the refuge, and digital settlement as the destination. What it does not show is completion. The team's strongest structural claims confirmed as previews. The terminal claims have not resolved, and the viewer who gave the cleanest temporal marker pointed at 2027 through 2028.

The warning: what is in formation right now

United States:

• The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.35 percent, a 24-year high, with the 30-year near 5.70 percent
• Gross national debt has crossed $40 trillion
• The Fed hiked unanimously in September, and markets price roughly 69 percent odds of another hike in December, into a supply-driven inflation the Fed cannot control with rates
• The S&P 500 trades at record levels near 7,800 while market breadth has narrowed to readings last seen at the April 2025 correction

Middle East:

• The Strait of Hormuz is on day 222 of effective closure, with 4 commercial transits on October 4 against a pre-war norm near 85 per day
• War-risk insurance on a supertanker passage prices near 30 times pre-war levels
• Iran states the strait stays closed until seven conditions are met; the US rejected Tehran's reopening plan, and officials have floated resuming strikes after the November 3 midterms
• Tanker attacks hit their highest weekly level of the war last week, including a strike off Qatar's coast with crew casualties
• The Houthis struck Saudi airports and a refinery on October 5-6; Saudi Arabia answered with its first naval bombardment of Houthi positions; fighting around Bab el-Mandeb killed more than 270 combatants in 24 hours
• Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey activated the Mecca Defence Alliance; 9,000 additional US troops and a third carrier are in theater
• UK diesel has set a record at 199.52 pence per liter

Europe:

• France's 10-year borrowing cost touched 5 percent, the highest since 2002, and France now pays more than Italy or Greece
• The French-German spread exceeded 150 basis points, the widest since the 2011 euro debt crisis, with Italian and Greek spreads widening roughly 15 basis points in sympathy
• French debt stands at 119 percent of GDP, projected at 121.7 percent in 2027, with interest payments set to exceed education spending
• The budget fight reaches a November 17 vote against a fragile minority government, nationwide school unrest, and a spring 2027 presidential election with Marine Le Pen leading polls
• Spain holds a snap election November 29; the euro trades at a 17-month low
• The ECB's bond-market backstop is likely unavailable to France because France sits inside an excessive deficit procedure
• One detail deserves attention: the US 10-year yield now sits above France's. In the 2011 crisis, capital fled Europe into Treasuries. That escape route is weaker this time, which is precisely Dick's confidence thesis expressed in a single spread

Russia and Ukraine:

• Russia opened its winter 2026-2027 strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in late September, launching over 1,900 drones, 1,700 aerial bombs, and 25 missiles in a single week
• Kyiv's two major bridges were struck seven times in four days; a single wave on October 7 killed 28, including an apartment block in Pryluky
• Commercial ships have been hit in Bulgaria's Black Sea economic zone, one sunk
• Ukraine is striking Russian refineries and the Samara facility that blends up to half of Russia's Urals export crude, while Washington presses Kyiv to stop because the strikes prop up US diesel prices
• The EU approved 1,646 new sanctions designations, mostly against Russia's missile production chain

What has not confirmed

• Dick's bank run and digital access event: frozen logins, inability to reach funds
• Daz's bailout component
• Sean's terminal "game over" resolution for legacy finance
• Nyiam's three to four months of disruption with strained support systems, and the heads-of-state master plan announcement
• The 2027-2028 window itself

Monitor next

1. October 13: French budget debate opens; November 17 vote
2. November 3: US midterms, given the administration's stated option to resume Iran strikes afterward
3. November 29: Spain's snap election
4. December FOMC: a hike is the consensus bet at roughly 69 percent
5. Treasury auction demand, particularly the long end, for signs of buyer revolt
6. IMF PortWatch weekly Hormuz transit counts: 4 per day versus the 85 norm is the baseline to watch
7. OAT-Bund spread: sustained levels above 150 basis points signal deepening French stress
8. Russian winter campaign versus Ukrainian grid stability, and Ukraine's refinery strike tempo
9. Equity breadth: record index prints on narrowing participation historically resolve one of two ways

Disclaimer: Future Forecasting Group publishes experimental intelligence research produced through remote viewing, offered as an informational input rather than certainty, prophecy, or individualized advice. Nothing in this article constitutes financial advice, and all markets carry risk of loss; readers should do their own research and consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions. Market and geopolitical figures cited reflect public reporting as of October 8, 2026 and can change quickly.