The Chosen Few: After the Crypto Winter, the Hard Part Is Still Decision-Making

The three participants in FFG's Crypto Challenge, known as The Chosen Few, return to review their crypto allocation made months earlier. Their check-in moves beyond portfolio performance into a more useful question: how do people make decisions when prices are volatile, timelines are uncertain, and expectations keep shifting?

The discussion compares different approaches to risk and learning. Participants describe watching markets, researching newer projects, using stablecoins, and exploring AI for creative and practical work. Jordan offers a market-cycle interpretation, while also discussing what could challenge it, including macro conditions, regulation, and uncertainty around tokenized assets.

For members, the value is in seeing how experience changes judgment: what gets monitored, how people respond to price swings, and why a market view should remain open to revision. Watch the full session.

This session was recorded on October 8, 2026.

Session Notes

What participants reported

Jack

• Said his positions were in Canton and HBAR.
• Estimated his portfolio value at about $1,700 during the conversation.
• Described studying crypto material alongside his college work, including convexity and newer projects such as Babylon.

Pearl

• Discussed positions in RedStone and Canton, and said she had added to a position after a price decline.
• Described using USDC and receiving payments in Bitcoin.
• Reported a USDC yield of 3.75% at the time of the conversation and a previous rate of 5.75%. These are participant-reported figures, not independently verified rates.
• Also described using AI tools and working on Pilates books and other projects.

Javier

• Described following crypto discussions while putting substantial time into AI-assisted creative work.
• Said he was building a customized workflow for film production and other projects.
• Framed AI as a way to support his own work habits and goals.

Market interpretation shared in-session

• Jordan characterized the market as potentially past the worst of a crypto-winter period, while acknowledging further volatility and uncertainty.
• He connected a broader market recovery to Bitcoin’s direction, regulatory clarity, and wider adoption of tokenized assets.
• The conversation referenced Coinbase, Robinhood, and a Hedera platform in connection with stock or tokenized-stock trading. Those statements reflect the discussion and have not been independently checked here.
• Jordan described an Elliott Wave scenario in which Bitcoin might rise toward roughly $95,000 to $100,000 before a possible correction. He also cited a chart level near $45,000 as a possible lower scenario. These were conditional views expressed in-session, not established outcomes.
• The possibility of money rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins was discussed, alongside the counterpoint that ETF flows could make such a rotation less direct than in previous cycles.

Probabilistic read

The group’s central view leaned toward improving conditions, but the discussion retained meaningful uncertainty. Relevant variables included Bitcoin’s price structure, regulation, macroeconomic conditions, tokenization adoption, and the possibility of further declines. The session supports treating the recovery thesis as a scenario to monitor, not a certainty.

Method and decision craft

The conversation highlights several useful decision questions without resolving them for every participant:

1. How much risk is appropriate for a person’s circumstances?
2. What would change the market-cycle interpretation?
3. How can someone avoid chasing an asset after a rapid rise?
4. What conditions would justify revisiting a position or taking some risk off?
5. Which claims about yields, adoption, or future market behavior require independent verification?

Disclaimer: This discussion is informational and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile, and investors can lose principal.